An Ice Free Arctic? Not This Year.

June 27, 2008. Maggie Rodriguez makes a wild claim on CBS's Early Show. In case you don't remember, here is what she said:

"Also ahead this morning, we'll talk about a disturbing new report from some scientists in Colorado who say that there is the very real possibility that for the first time we will see the ice in the North Pole melt away completely during the summer."

Yes, I said wild claim and that is exactly what it was. National Geographic had it with this article before it got picked up by CBS:

North Pole May Be Ice-Free For First Time This Summer
National Geographic News
June 20, 2008

But there is always a problem when politics trumps real science. The problem is that predictions go wrong and the wild prediction above was very wrong.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

Arctic sea ice extent on July 16 stood at 8.91 million square kilometers (3.44 square miles). While extent was below the 1979 to 2000 average of 9.91 square kilometers (3.83 million square miles), it was 1.05 million square kilometers (0.41 million square miles) above the value for July 16, 2007 (see Figures 1 and 2).

In other words, the Arctic Ice is thicker this year than it was this time last year and that means the chances of an "ice-free Arctic" are becoming more remote.

That goes counter to National Geographic's claim that "[T]his summer's forecast serves as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change."

Clearly, the "climate change" they are referring to is going in the right direction according to the data and we are getting more ice, not less.

I wonder if Maggie Rodriguez will report that there is really more ice up there than this time last year? Doubtful. That would require integrity on her part.

You can access the complete article on-line here:

Arctic Sea Ice News And Analysis
National Snow and Ice Data Center
July 17, 2008