Polls Apart: Democrats Should Not Bank On Obama In November

This Congress has been under more scrutiny than any other Congress in modern history. That means that Representatives and Senators will not be able to hide their voting records behind rhetoic or spin without the general population being able to identify them as either ignorant or liars. A year ago, the Democrats didn't seem very worried about that. But they better be worried about it now. In fact, it is a wonder that many of the freshmen Dems who won seats from traditionally Republican districts are even bothering to run for re-election after the disaster they have created for themselves by following Barack Obama off of a cliff.

And even though the next Virginia Senate race isn't until 2012, Jim Webb is already beginning his campaign by sending out emails filled with lies about Tea Party supporters and insults towards the Republicans. Apparently Webb knows better than to highlight his own unpopular voting record. But people like me will be there to remind everyone of exactly what type of leftist Jim Webb is. Again, it is a wonder why he is even considering running for re-election since he cannot hide from his voting record which will clearly show how he has helped to run up a debt that our grand-children won't be able to pay and how he is in favor of more unwanted government intrusion into our lives. Warner will be gone two years behind Webb.

Writing for the Weekly Standard, Jonathan V. Last tells us why:

When the president took office in January 2009, Gallup measured his overall job approval at 67 percent, with 86 percent of blacks approving. Since then, blacks have shown an increasingly favorable opinion of him. ... Using Gallup’s data, blacks push Obama’s overall number up by about 5 points; using Rasmussen’s by roughly 7 points. ... The median congressional district has a black population of only 6.41 percent. This uneven dispersal magnifies the disparity of approval between Obama’s base and the rest of the country. If relatively few congressional districts look like America, then in most congressional districts Obama’s job approval is likely to be lower—anywhere from 2 to 7 points lower—than the national average.

That will spell major difficulties for the Dems this November. They might want to seriously rethink that thunderous applause they gave when they shoved Nationalized Health Care down our throats.

You can access the complete article on-line here:

Polls Apart: Why Imperiled Congressional Democrats Can Take No Solace From Obama’s Approval Ratings
Jonathan V. Last
The Weekly Standard
March 29, 2010

Poll Numbers: Obama Not Doing So Hot

Well, what did you expect? As a general rule, people do not like promises being made and then broken. People do not like being lied to. People do not like being falsely accused of racism.

Put all of that together, and you have the latest tracking poll from Scott Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 28% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12. That’s the lowest rating yet recorded for President Obama. ... Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That is the lowest level of total approval yet recorded for this President. Fifty-one percent (51%) now disapprove. A plurality of voters now believe the President views American society as unfair and discriminatory. ... Just 23% believe health care costs will go down if health care reform is passed. Most (53%) expect prices would rise and 50% expect the quality of care would decline.

You also have to remember that Rasmussen polls likely voters while Gallup simply polls adults. Many of Obama's supporters (especially those in their early 20's) are now not likely to vote for him again.

You can access the complete report on-line here:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Rasmussen Reports
July 30, 2009

Are Polls Worth Anything? And A Recession On the Horizon?

It is damn near impossible to turn on a TV news show, or pick up a newspaper or magazine without hearing or reading the words "According to the latest poll ..." I get sick and tired of it for the simple fact that no one from Gallup or Rasmussen or Zogby has ever polled me. Nor have they ever polled any of my friends or family.

What gives? We are average people with average lives. Aren't we the very type of people that the polls claim to represent?

Well, yes, but the polls almost never reflect our views. Why?

Because polls can be manipulated and twisted, that's why.

Writing for Human Events Online, Timothy P. Carney has this:

Pollsters don’t just call a random, representative sample of the electorate and tally up their responses. They make many assumptions: how many independents will vote, who counts as a “likely voter,” how many seniors will vote, and so on. If the pollster’s sample has 15% senior citizens, but he estimates that seniors will comprise 20% of the electorate, he will weight his results. There’s tons of guessing and tweaking. A couple of tweaks in the wrong direction, and you’ve got the wrong guy winning.

And it is not just the guesswork that should be questioned, it is the geography of the demographics as well. For example, if I took a poll of 5000 inner-city residents across the United States, I could rightly claim that it was a nationwide poll. But did the results actually reflect the nation as a whole? Not likely.

Thus, it can clearly be seen that Carney's most profound observation is right on the mark: Polling is an art, not a science.

Carney also offers three pieces of advice, of which the first is most important:

Basically, don’t trust polls.

You can access the complete article on-line here:

Why The Polls Were Wrong In New Hampshire
Timothy P. Carney
Human Events Online
January 14, 2008

---

I know, most people don't like to talk about a slowing economy if they can avoid it. In fact, back before the big crash of 1929, people absolutely refused to listen to any naysayers who would question the strength of the U.S. economy during the 1920's. Well, they got a pretty big shock on Black Thursday (or Black Tuesday depending on when you think the Great Depression kicked off).

Irwin M. Stelzer, writing for the Weekly Standard has a few observations about the current market trends:

Economists and analysts are rushing to revise their 2008 forecasts, and journalists are competing for page one placements with scary stories about evicted homeowners sleeping in the streets, and consumers filing for bankruptcy. Western singer Kris Kristofferson did not have fallen CEOs and other investment bankers in mind in mind when he sang about the man who "Once ... had a future full of money, love, and dreams, which he spent like they was goin' out of style," but it is an apt description of many shell-shocked bankers and investors. They have reason to worry. Oil finally hit $100 per barrel, sending share prices tumbling, gold prices soaring in anticipation of renewed inflation, and developing nations deeper into poverty. Food prices continue their upward trajectory and, combined with gasoline prices that are due to break new records, are reducing consumer discretionary-spending power to a mere shadow of its former self. Latest surveys suggest that even soaring exports will not keep the U.S. manufacturing sector from slowing down, with falling sales of autos a particular drag. So desperate are dealers to clear inventory-laden lots that one has taken out a magazine ad offering 12-year financing to anyone who thinks he can afford the gasoline guzzled by one of the Rolls Royces sitting on his lot. Most important, last month the unemployment rate soared from 4.7 percent to 5 percent, with more industries losing than gaining jobs.

I think there is reason for concern. So, one of my New Year's Resolutions is to have a nice long talk with my financial advisor and figure out a strategy. No, I am not going to do any kind of advertising here. I am simply offering the advice that now is the time to start thinking about a major economic downturn and how to ride it out.

More:

We know, too, that as the greenback depreciates in value, foreign central banks are less and less inclined to keep stores of pictures of American presidents in their vaults, and more interested in diversifying their currency holdings. The dollar's share of central banks' holdings of foreign reserves has fallen from 66.5 percent to 63.8 percent in the past year. Equally important, oil-producing nations, which until now have accepted dollars-for-crude, and have pegged their currencies to the dollar, are finding it increasingly difficult to hold to that policy. The dollars they are getting, which they use to pay the large foreign workforces on which their work-shy citizens rely, buy less and less when remitted to the wives and families of these workers. That is causing social discontent of the sort that horrifies the ruling classes in the Arab countries. My guess is they will begin pegging their own currencies to a basket of currencies that includes the dollar, but in which the euro is importantly represented. A negative impact on U.S. influence in the region is one possible consequence.

And that all points to trouble. Now, the U.S. economy will survive but how well individual citizens weather the storm will depend on who takes the situation seriously.

You can access the complete column on-line here:

Uncertainty Reigns
Irwin M. Stelzer
The Weekly Standard
January 8, 2008